Single, successful businesswoman Holly, cynical after a devastating past relationship, returns to her quaint hometown for Christmas only to find her childhood home needs saving from foreclosure. She clashes adorably with Jake, the ruggedly handsome carpenter tasked with the repairs, whose heartwarming family and infectious Christmas spirit slowly thaw Holly’s icy heart. Amidst snowball fights, baking contests, and a town Christmas festival, their undeniable chemistry blossoms into a love that’s as warm and comforting as a mug of hot cocoa by the fireplace, proving that even the most jaded heart can find a second chance at love - especially during the holidays.

- Gemini's response to "write me a one-paragraph synopsis of the most cliché Hallmark Christmas movie possible"

The Christmas movie formula is so predictable that a machine with no capacity for emotion nailed it. Gemini's response, while utterly serious in prose, reads as hilariously ironic to any human familiar with the genre precisely because of the tropes' ubiquity. Yet despite this all, holiday movies as a monolith do so well that an entire sector of the media industrial complex specializes solely in producing holiday content. This isn’t just a witty observation; it’s a glimpse into the jarringly formulaic nature of holiday movies. But just how formulaic? Can artificial intelligence, devoid of sentimental bias, reveal the true motives that drive these festive narratives? Does the machine know us better than we do? To truly answer this, we are setting the machine aside and diving deep into the roots - we will examine the human psychology laying at the root of this phenomenon!

The Comfort of Familiarity

We crave what we know. It's an elementary pillar of human behavior - any sense of familiarity is deeply appreciated in this often chaotic world. This inherent preference for the known profoundly impacts our enjoyment of entertainment, particularly within genres designed to provide solace and escape. Familiarity Does Indeed Promote Attraction... by Reis et al. (2011), demonstrates a distinct link between frequency of exposure and positive sentimental evaluation: the more we encounter something, the more agreeable we find it. This applies equally to ideas - the longer we're exposed to ideologies and mentalities, the more likely we are to accept and even adopt them. Similarly, the well-established patterns and predictable narrative beats of popular culture foster connection, prompting positive responses even in advanced and highly familiar circumstances. In tight-stretched negotiation settings, familiarity massively increases the likelihood of compromise, suggesting that a subconscious sense of greater safety increases our capacity for mutual understanding. This social conditioning of what is “familiar” in terms of behavior creates both expectation as well as predictability, influencing behavior. As a social species, once we've assigned a sense of permanence to an entity, even subconsciously, our reaction to its presence is increasingly positive.

This explains, in part, why a repetitive approach has worked so exceptionally well for the holiday industrial complex. It is wholly aesthetic, and self-admitting of this even - most holiday movies nowadays even make fun of their own plots at this point to beat the audience to the punch and be "in on the gag." The consistent tropes: the quaint small town setting, the cynical "all work no play" businesswoman protagonist, the aimless but joyful small town man, the classic Christmas tunes, et cet. - are all to be expected. This genre does not serve to educate the audience, nor challenge them, nor take them on an adventure - it is calibrated to provide a comfortable, predictable escape - with some pretty scenery. Comforting art does exceptionally well in this season - and not arbitrarily. There's a reason this template consistently strikes gold. The American holiday season is, in fact, a time of widespread elevated anxiety and depression. Last holiday season (2023), the American Psychological Association (APA) reported that 89% of Americans overall experience heightened stress in the holiday season that noticeably affects them. 43% of those surveyed said that the stress mounts so high that it renders the entire holiday season unenjoyable, 36% said it feels like a competition, and 38% even shared that they turn to negative coping mechanisms to mitigate their holiday strife!

The holidays are even more dreaded by the American population than tax season! With the most frequent cited factors being financial strain and varying degrees of family drama, many are in deep emotional and even physical distress by the time they reach the climax of the holiday season. This is reflected across cultures where societal holiday obligations are generally more widespread - which in the USA, they especially are. Imagine walking through the mall in its winter wonderland make-up, as one does in the season, surrounded by smiling and laughing people. For every 2 people whose joy is genuine, there's (actually slightly more than) 1 who is drinking through the pain to cope. This is all to say - adherence to the tried and true template we've come to expect of a Christmas movie is not lazy filmmaking, but rather, giving the public what it hungers for in this tumultuous time: a friend they know. The traditional Christmas movie formula, well-recognized and emotionally resonant, perfectly fills that need, and - critically so - not through artistic innovation, but reliability. This well-established psychological method is designed precisely to alleviate the existing high pressure within audiences, resulting in much-needed contentment.

If It Ain't Broke

The enduring success of the holiday movie formula isn't accidental; it's a carefully evolved strategy built on consistent audience appeal across diverse groups of people! But its not like Christmas movies have always been here to corner the market on holiday cheer, it had to start somewhere. Funnily enough - we originally didn't like the idea! The Rosetta Stone of Christmas films, It's a Wonderful Life, was released in 1946 to profound critical and academy acclaim, even receiving 5 Oscar nominations. It was however a monumental flop in the box office, and (very ironically given the plot) bankrupted its company, Liberty Films! With a $3.2M budget, the studio had identified a breakeven point of $6.8M that they would need the theaters to gross to stay afloat. It made $3.3M in its initial run, leaving the greater RKO in the hole for $525K. The public overwhelmingly chose to forego the innovative new picture, because they had no clue what a "Christmas movie" was even supposed to mean to them!

So then, when did the tide turn? When did this now iconic film turn from major disappointment to a cornerstone of American culture? The reason is... hilarious, and it happened in 1974. At the time, copyright law required renewal every 28 years - do the math, and the picture comes together quickly. RKO was already deeply entangled in financial struggles, known for disorganized bookkeeping/records management, and they forgot to officially renew the rights to It's a Wonderful Life by the deadline. Consequently, the early 70's were the days that television networks were fiercely competing and on the rise, as TV sets were more and more common in the average American household. When the copyright assumedly lapsed, numerous stations played the movie constantly and free of charge, while RKO spent decades trying to contest it, to no avail. And that's how this unknown, unsuccessful - yet high-production value and free "Christmas movie" came to be an asteroid in media. At some point in the creators' fight to get the rights back, their initially disappointing project became an American staple simply by being accessible - and a whole industry spawned.

It's a Wonderful Life's unexpected journey from box-office flop to cultural icon highlights the interplay between artistic merit and market forces in shaping long-term success. Its initial failure wasn't due to quality but rather to a lack of established context for "holiday-themed" media - an oddball suggestion at the time! While its critical acclaim and multiple Oscar nominations attest to undeniable artistic quality, its initial box-office underperformance reveals a disconnect between creative excellence and immediate market reception - a crucial indicator of the difficulties of assessing what reliably generates predictable profit. Due to market complexities such as media access across diverse segments and various contextualized market factors, we are often yielded highly inconsistent, yet also predictable, results which influence consumer engagement across this creative sector. Trailblazing is an equity investment, not a get rich quick scheme: "Christmas movies" may not have entered with a bang, but they are certainly having the last laugh.

Fa - la - la - loading

The advent of streaming has irrevocably altered the content landscape, introducing both exciting possibilities and daunting challenges for filmmakers seeking holiday success. No longer confined to limited theatrical releases or a handful of television slots, Christmas movies now compete in a vast, ever-expanding digital marketplace. This abundance has majorly increased the pressure to deviate from the formula, to distinguish one's work in a rapidly-growing pool, but could also threaten the specific demanded aesthetic. While the aforementioned core elements most often remain, we've seen increasing efforts to diversify representation and explore slightly less saccharine themes. Netflix's Holiday in the Wild, for instance, departs from the usual young-professional storyline, and focuses on a middle-aged divorcee (an historically under-represented group) embarking on a solo adventure to find love again. Similarly, Single All the Way tells the story of the usual holiday romance, but with a queer relationship at the helm. Jingle Jangle employs the usual extravagant holiday visuals and a musical setting to offer the first-ever "traditional Christmas musical" following an all-POC cast.

The relative success of these films suggests a growing audience appetite for more inclusive and varied narratives. However, these films also masterfully walked the line of pushing the envelope while still delivering on the aesthetic the audience went in expecting. While a complete break from established tropes remains risky - the more modern capabilities of scaling down production value, and easier reach of distribution, opens the door to the niche successes of oddball project. Most famously Krampus, the "horror holiday legend," was largely forgone by the general public - however a whirlwind success! Looking at big players such as The Polar Express and The Grinch (Jim Carrey), which respectively grossed $318M and $345M - huge blockbuster figures - Krampus only pulled in $61M. However - at a budget of $170M, The Polar Express pulled in a hearty 87% profit, and at a budget of $123M, The Grinch pulled in a generous 180% profit. Krampus only had a $15M budget to work with in comparison, and at the $61M gross, pulled in a monumental profit of 307%. From a box office standpoint, this niche endeavor was proportionally more successful than both of these films combined! The balance to be struck hinges on finding innovative ways to incorporate fresh perspectives without alienating viewers who seek the familiarity that defines the genre - but also makes room for specialization and a level of audience-targeting never before technologically practical enough to pursue.

The streaming revolution has not broken the Christmas movie formula; it has  it. The increased competition and readily available platforms have created a dynamic environment where both classic comforts and innovative departures can thrive. Viewers' evolving preferences are pushing creators to experiment, leading to a more diverse and inclusive array of festive narratives. The result? A richer, more vibrant holiday season on screen, offering something for everyone, from the nostalgic seeker of familiar comfort to the adventurous explorer of fresh festive perspectives. The future of Christmas movies is bright, bold, and brimming with Fa-la-la-loaded possibilities.